In the early 90s, personal computers were strictly the domain of nerds and professionals. I remember this age, though not very fondly, where I had to edit my autoexec.bat and config.sys in order to make a demanding piece of software (like a game) run. The advent of Microsoft Windows and its gradual evolution attempted to streamline and simplify the hassle of running software.
Its success was a mixed blessing. On one hand, it allowed the average Joe to own and use a computer. On the other hand, it allowed the average Joe to own and use a computer, exposing him to a vast landscape of viruses, trojans, spam, web browser exploits, phishing, scams, and adware/malware for which he was woefully unprepared to handle. Windows, in its own way, was also unprepared for the unbound ignorance and indifference of Mr. Average Joe. Suddenly a paramount goal of modern Windows was to save Joe from himself and his tendency to install malware on his computer, and have his identity stolen from various forms of online fraud.
The fundamental "problem" with Windows is it’s an open platform. It’s a better Microsoft DOS. While it has increasingly capable security features, it was never designed to be idiot-proof. It was not purpose-built like a game console OS or a smartphone OS.
Exhibit A: Game Consoles
Within the past five years, the video game industry largely withdrew from the PC landscape, as dedicated game consoles started to sport the social networking & online features previously found only on a PC, as well as took advantage of the previously unattainable high resolutions of the HDTV / home theater revolution.
I remember the late 90s and early 2000s of cutting-edge PC gaming, though once again not very fondly, of rolling your own gaming rig with hand-selected components, mucking around forever with video drivers and DirectX, boldly experimenting with overclocking and tweaking the performance of Windows until the cows come home.
This was obviously a poor way to play videogames for the mainstream, something only a geeky niche of users (like myself) would find appealing. Compounded by rampant software piracy & subsequent overreaching DRM, it was only a matter of time before the video game industry and "cutting edge" gamers would migrate to the Xbox 360, with its sophisticated online features and no-hassle gaming.
Nowadays, PC gaming is left with only a few genres suited to desktop controls: MMORPG (keyboard), RTS (mouse), and hardcore simulation games with their open peripheral support. Do you want a cutting-edge, PC-exclusive game to show off that fancy new rig of yours? You only have two choices: the already aging Crysis, and the awkwardly complex ArmA 2.
The lesson of this is: closed, limited, idiot-proof platforms are what the mainstream want out of technology, not an open platform that relies on your ability to use it.
Exhibit B: Netbooks
A comment I frequently hear from mainstream PC users is how their fancy new X-GHz rig is primarily being used to browse the web and play MP3s. Before netbooks, the entire computer market was running under the assumption that people were buying PCs for productivity– for, say, computing and generally doing real things, or if not, bleeding-edge PC gaming. This was not the case. Enter: Netbooks.
Asus sparked the Netbook revolution with their "Eee PC" in 2007. It was a very small, phenomenally inexpensive laptop. What was anticipated to be a niche device stumbled upon exactly what the mainstream crowd wanted: a slow, piece-of-shit computer that’s only good enough to (barely) surf the web and play MP3s. Unlike most "laptops", this device could comfortably sit on a lap and give you facebook/twitter updates as you watched TV, rotting your brain at twice the normal speed. While productivity was technically possible, good luck running modern Microsoft Office on it reasonably, much less anything that demands real CPU power.
Intel, by getting into the netbook CPU game, realized its success was cutting into its own higher-margin profits of faster CPUs, but knew it could not fight the plain-as-day trend.
Exhibit C: Smartphones
Apple did not invent the smartphone. It merely popularized it by producing a smartphone streamlined for non-productivity, unlike the (admittedly horrible) Windows Mobile phones & PDAs of the past. Unlike the multi-tasking, crash-happy WinMo, iPhone’s limited, tightly controlled, idiot-proof OS quickly became the smartphone OS of choice for the mainstream. Google stepped in with the relatively open Android platform to offer a mid-way point between "productivity" smartphone OSes and the limited, "experience"-focused iPhone OS.
iPad
The recently announced iPad and its defacto competitor, the coming flood of Android tablets, represents the future of mainstream computing. It sounds hyperbolic, considering what it is: a big iPod Touch, but its limited, idiot-proof experience is clearly what the mainstream wants, or rather, needs out of their computers.
Computer nerds like myself are all too familiar with being their friends’ and family’s go-to tech support guy. The subtext of every computer with botched Windows installs, hopelessly adware-ed from head to toe is "you shouldn’t be using a computer". And now, finally, there will be an alternative to the old adage of "Get (or drop $1.5 grand on) a Mac" — get an iPad or an Android tablet. It’s tightly controlled user "experience" is clearly what you need to not be eaten alive by technology.
I expect mainstream users will gradually ditch their Windows machines for Smartphone OS tablets and netbooks once they see them performing 100% of the tasks they care about.
Chrome OS and Cloud Computing
"Do you not do real things with your computer? Do you just dick around on Facebook and Farmville all day?", the Google Chrome OS introduction video may as well begin.
The gradual cloud computing evolution envisions a world for people who don’t need computers to be more than just web portals. If the internet was infinitely fast, then maybe I would just use a Chrome OS PC + recording interface to communicate with an Ableton server to do all my DAW work… but the internet is not that fast. It’s not ready to handle any media work beyond text in real-time. However, Google still found this a prime time to rev up their Cloud Computing vision with Chrome OS, the OS for people who don’t do work. Its initial demographic draw will be this casual crowd of computer users… "early adopters" of the Cloud Computing future.
Windows PCs in the Future
Like the exodus of cutting-edge games from the PC world, I expect an exodus of mainstream users to Android and iPhoneOS tablets and netbooks, once again leaving vanilla Windows PCs in the strict domain of nerds and professionals. End users will get what they want, Microsoft can stop trying to design a Windows that attempts to save you from yourself at every turn, and the problem of malware and zombie PCs will more or less be solved if not just greatly diminished.
